By Josefine Lederer, Adviser, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
Looking ahead
Global events like the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated how profoundly international developments can impact all aspects of daily life in Australia. Megatrends like geopolitical contestation, climate change and technological shifts are generating rapid change and intense uncertainty, which impact policies in complex and intersecting ways. Integrated analysis that better bridges the divides between domestic, and international and national security policy is increasingly essential for developing robust policy. Long-term, contestable policy planning will help us to chart a course for Australia in the coming decades. Especially in this time of deep international, technological and economic uncertainty, integrated analysis will ensure APS agencies develop policies that protect and advance Australia’s interests.
Futures analysis in the APS
Futures analysis is a tool for understanding the long-term drivers, challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Agencies across the APS use Futures methods to tackle long-term and complex policy problems, by testing the fitness of current policy settings, identifying gaps, risks and opportunities and illuminating new policy options.
The International Division of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PM&C) has been funded by the APS Capability Reinvestment Fund 2024-25 to deliver a whole-of-government Indo-Pacific Futures project, examining some of Australia’s most important and complex long-term policy issues. In close collaboration with other departments, PM&C has brought together key policy-owners from across the APS to examine potential future scenarios where major shifts are underway. This ambitious project will inform upcoming policy development, as well as strengthen the APS’ ability to do integrated long-term policy development and forward planning.
Opportunities of a whole of government project
Taking a whole of government approach to long-term policy planning and strategic analysis has never been more important. But it also brings its own set of challenges. Engaging policy owners across agencies and building focus on long-term issues has required intensive consultation.
Nearly halfway through the Indo-Pacific Futures project (concluding in June 2025), the benefits are already apparent. Integrated cross-government analysis breaks down silos and unveils the complex interdependencies between policy issues. By using Futures analysis to improve long-term policy thinking, agencies can also work more efficiently and effectively towards common goals and understand the trade-offs between different interests involved. This project is also an opportunity to tap into valuable expertise outside of government to challenge and enrich the policy development process.
Overcoming the challenges of a whole of government project
One challenge of conducting cross-agency work is leveraging the unique policy perspectives that each agency brings. As well as having differing priorities, processes, and reporting lines, agencies have distinct roles in agenda-setting, policy-making and implementation. To guide the design, delivery and outputs of the project, PM&C is convening a series of Steering Group meetings and is collaborating with external experts. Driving a sense of shared ownership has been important. PM&C has also engaged early with participating agencies to ensure they have a shared vision for the project, an understanding of their individual value-add and are prepared to look beyond the horizon of their short-term work.
Another challenge is accommodating different levels of Futures experience across agencies. PM&C is taking this opportunity to offer a Futures training program for all project collaborators, so every APS area involved shares a baseline understanding of Futures methods. Upskilling project participants will be crucial for the success of the workshops and will also support ongoing Futures work in the APS. After the training program, participants will use these skills in a series of workshops to uncover long-term drivers, challenges and policy opportunities.
The future of Futures
At the conclusion of the project, PM&C will summarise key policy insights to share with relevant APS agencies, reporting to key bodies on specific issues. These findings will be used to inform existing and upcoming policy development work across the APS. Crucially, the project will also leave participants with useful cross-agency connections, as well as valuable skills and experience in Futures analysis. The project is also an opportunity to trial new ways of working across government – because the issues facing Australia demand holistic responses. By strengthening the APS’ capability to do whole-of-government Futures work, this project aims to further future-proof the APS’ ability to undertake integrated strategic planning and analysis for the coming decades. We’ll need it.